FloPlanner · Guides

How to plan stock when your supplier takes 10 weeks or more

With a long lead time, the order that stops next quarter's stock-out has to be placed this month. The answer is to plan in weeks, and to work backwards.

The short answer

Find the week each product is forecast to run out. Subtract the full lead time (production plus transit). That's the latest week to place the order. Add a reserve of stock for demand you can't predict, and check again every week.

1. Know your real lead time

Lead time is everything from placing the order to stock you can sell: production, transit, customs and receiving. Use what actually happened on recent orders, not the quote.

2. Forecast in weeks

Start from your own weekly sales, including last year's seasonal peaks and any promotions planned. A monthly total can hide the week you run out.

3. Roll stock forward

Each week: stock on hand, less forecast sales, plus orders arriving that week. The first week stock drops below your reserve is the week that matters.

4. Work back to the order date

From that week, step back by the lead time. If that date is already past, the order is late: look at a bigger first order, a faster route for part of it, or accepting a short gap.

5. Size the order

Order enough to cover demand until the following order can land, plus your reserve, rounded up to the supplier's minimum order and order multiples.

6. Repeat weekly

Sales, deliveries and supplier dates change. A plan checked every week catches a slipping order early.

FloPlanner does this roll-forward for every product, for you to review: reorder planning and the weekly stock forecast.